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Analisis faktor yang menetukan pelarian modal (capital flight) dan dampaknya terhadap perekonomian indonesia (periode 1996 -2009 :1

Main Authors: Kus VIrgantari, author, Add author: M. Shauqie Azar, supervisor, Add author: Lana Soelistianingsih, examiner, Add author: Arindra Artasya Zainal, examiner
Format: Masters Doctoral
Terbitan: Universitas Indonesia , 2010
Subjects:
Capital Flight
Online Access: https://lib.ui.ac.id/detail?id=133046
ctrlnum 133046
fullrecord <?xml version="1.0"?> <dc schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/ http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd"><type>Thesis:Masters</type><title>Analisis faktor yang menetukan pelarian modal (capital flight) dan dampaknya terhadap perekonomian indonesia (periode 1996 -2009 :1</title><creator>Kus VIrgantari, author</creator><creator>Add author: M. Shauqie Azar, supervisor</creator><creator>Add author: Lana Soelistianingsih, examiner</creator><creator>Add author: Arindra Artasya Zainal, examiner</creator><publisher>Universitas Indonesia</publisher><date>2010</date><subject>Capital Flight</subject><description>Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji variabel yang mempengaruhi Capital Flight di Indonesia dan mengkaji hubungan kausalitas serta dampak Capital Flight terhadap variabel makroekonomi Indonesia. Hasil analisis Ordinary Least Square (OLS) menunjukkan bahwa variabel Lagged CFRatio, nilai tukar efektif riil, hutang luar negeri pemerintah, tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi, peringkat kredit (rating) Indonesia dan kondisi ketidakstabilan ekonomi maupun sosial politik, signifikan secara statistik mampu menjelaskan perubahan Capital Flight Indonesia. Analisis VAR/VECM termasuk hasil estimasi IRF menggunakan data perekonomian Indonesia (1996:1 ? 2009:1) menunjukkan bahwa umumnya terdapat hubungan satu arah dari Capital Flight terhadap variabel makroekonomi Indonesia yang diteliti. Hasil penelitian ini didukung pula oleh analisis variance decomposition yang menunjukkan bahwa proporsi terpenting dan terbesar yang mempengaruhi keragaman (variasi) pada variabel Capital Flight adalah shock variabel Capital Flight itu sendiri (berkontribusi sebesar 63,47%-91,3%), diikuti variabel SBI (4,63%-15,9%), REER (2,51%-12,3%) dan Growth (1,13%-8,68%). Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa fenomena Capital Flight di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang ternyata direspon atau berdampak terhadap perekonomian Indonesia dan variabel non ekonomi seperti rating serta kondisi ketidakstabilan ekonomi dan sosial politik secara empiris terbukti berpengaruh terhadap pelarian modal di Indonesia. Untuk itu, pengendalian aliran modal di Indonesia yang dapat berdampak negatif terhadap perekonomian dalam negeri perlu dilakukan melalui penerapan kebijakan yang efektif dari institusi terkait. &lt;hr&gt; This study aims to identify the determinants of Capital Flight in Indonesia and its impact on the economy. Applying Ordinary Least Square (OLS) analysis, Capital Flight in Indonesia is influenced by Lagged CFRatio, real effective exchange rate (REER), foreign debt, economic growth, sovereign rating, and political/economic instability condition. Using a VAR/VECM analysis on quarterly Indonesia economic data during period of 1996.1 ? 2009.1., we find that there is Granger Casuality one-way relationship from Capital Flight to almost all macroeconomic variables used in this study. The result of impulse response function analysis also supports these findings. The result of variance decomposition shows that Capital Flight contributes 63.47%-91.3% on the variable itself and other variable contribute less percentage on Capital Flight fluctuation (SBI 4,63%-15,9%, REER 2,51%-12,31% and Growth 1,13%-8,68%). These findings assert that Capital Flight seems to have more influence on Indonesia economy than the economic fluctuation affecting the flow of capital from Indonesia. Also, non macroeconomic factor such as sovereign rating and instability economic, social and political condition have ability to explain capital flight phenomenon happened in Indonesia. Therefore, controlling the flow of capital in Indonesia, especially capital flow which could adversely affect the economy, must be done through effective implementation of policies from the government.</description><identifier>https://lib.ui.ac.id/detail?id=133046</identifier><recordID>133046</recordID></dc>
format Thesis:Masters
Thesis
Thesis:Doctoral
author Kus VIrgantari, author
Add author: M. Shauqie Azar, supervisor
Add author: Lana Soelistianingsih, examiner
Add author: Arindra Artasya Zainal, examiner
title Analisis faktor yang menetukan pelarian modal (capital flight) dan dampaknya terhadap perekonomian indonesia (periode 1996 -2009 :1
publisher Universitas Indonesia
publishDate 2010
topic Capital Flight
url https://lib.ui.ac.id/detail?id=133046
contents Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji variabel yang mempengaruhi Capital Flight di Indonesia dan mengkaji hubungan kausalitas serta dampak Capital Flight terhadap variabel makroekonomi Indonesia. Hasil analisis Ordinary Least Square (OLS) menunjukkan bahwa variabel Lagged CFRatio, nilai tukar efektif riil, hutang luar negeri pemerintah, tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi, peringkat kredit (rating) Indonesia dan kondisi ketidakstabilan ekonomi maupun sosial politik, signifikan secara statistik mampu menjelaskan perubahan Capital Flight Indonesia. Analisis VAR/VECM termasuk hasil estimasi IRF menggunakan data perekonomian Indonesia (1996:1 ? 2009:1) menunjukkan bahwa umumnya terdapat hubungan satu arah dari Capital Flight terhadap variabel makroekonomi Indonesia yang diteliti. Hasil penelitian ini didukung pula oleh analisis variance decomposition yang menunjukkan bahwa proporsi terpenting dan terbesar yang mempengaruhi keragaman (variasi) pada variabel Capital Flight adalah shock variabel Capital Flight itu sendiri (berkontribusi sebesar 63,47%-91,3%), diikuti variabel SBI (4,63%-15,9%), REER (2,51%-12,3%) dan Growth (1,13%-8,68%). Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa fenomena Capital Flight di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang ternyata direspon atau berdampak terhadap perekonomian Indonesia dan variabel non ekonomi seperti rating serta kondisi ketidakstabilan ekonomi dan sosial politik secara empiris terbukti berpengaruh terhadap pelarian modal di Indonesia. Untuk itu, pengendalian aliran modal di Indonesia yang dapat berdampak negatif terhadap perekonomian dalam negeri perlu dilakukan melalui penerapan kebijakan yang efektif dari institusi terkait. <hr> This study aims to identify the determinants of Capital Flight in Indonesia and its impact on the economy. Applying Ordinary Least Square (OLS) analysis, Capital Flight in Indonesia is influenced by Lagged CFRatio, real effective exchange rate (REER), foreign debt, economic growth, sovereign rating, and political/economic instability condition. Using a VAR/VECM analysis on quarterly Indonesia economic data during period of 1996.1 ? 2009.1., we find that there is Granger Casuality one-way relationship from Capital Flight to almost all macroeconomic variables used in this study. The result of impulse response function analysis also supports these findings. The result of variance decomposition shows that Capital Flight contributes 63.47%-91.3% on the variable itself and other variable contribute less percentage on Capital Flight fluctuation (SBI 4,63%-15,9%, REER 2,51%-12,31% and Growth 1,13%-8,68%). These findings assert that Capital Flight seems to have more influence on Indonesia economy than the economic fluctuation affecting the flow of capital from Indonesia. Also, non macroeconomic factor such as sovereign rating and instability economic, social and political condition have ability to explain capital flight phenomenon happened in Indonesia. Therefore, controlling the flow of capital in Indonesia, especially capital flow which could adversely affect the economy, must be done through effective implementation of policies from the government.
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