Implikasi Penerapan Kaidah Kebijakan Fiskal (Fiscal Rule) Terhadap Variabel-Variabel Ekonomi Makro di Indonesia Pendekatan Makroekonomika Konsensus Baru: New Consensus Macroeconomics
| Main Authors: | , MARSELINA, SE, MPM, , Prof. Dr. Insukindro, MA. |
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| Format: | Thesis NonPeerReviewed |
| Terbitan: |
[Yogyakarta] : Universitas Gadjah Mada
, 2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
https://repository.ugm.ac.id/134367/ http://etd.ugm.ac.id/index.php?mod=penelitian_detail&sub=PenelitianDetail&act=view&typ=html&buku_id=76029 |
Daftar Isi:
- Management government debt and budget deficit in Indonesia is based on ACT No 17 of 2003 and Government Regulation no 23 of 2003, that its measurement likes Maastricht Treaty concept used in some European Union countries. The implementation of this concept is government set maximum limit on government debt of 60 percent of GDP and maximum limit on budget deficit of 3 percent of GDP. The obstacle of this concept is, these is not described in the concept clearly when it is supposed to do the policy deficit, balanced, or surplus budget. As long as GDP increases, government debt can be added continuously, regardless of whether the economy still needs additional debt or not. High debt will burden the budget because debt must be paid so it shrinks fiscal space, disturbs the economy and fiscal sustainability. So, it needs a study to find out another alternative concept of debt rule that can ensure fiscal sustainability and economic development to avoid Indonesia from experienced default such as Europian Union countries. Thoughts of New Consensus Macroeconomic (MKB) was choosen because it is appropriate with the condition faced by economic in Indonesia today, where economic agents are dealing with the condition of pricing and rigid wage (sticky), agents use their logic to make optimal decision through inter temporal choices which is forward looking. The modification is done for Arestis Model by adding variables of debt deficit stabilizer in each equation and it adds another equation that is equation of fiscal rule, so the general stabilitation is more fully. Intertemporal model which is dynamic and cointegration in this study, was estimated by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with the surprise uses a simulation and a unit root test has previously been done to see stationer of time series data and test of the stability model uses CUSUM test, CUSUMSQ test and heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation test as a classic assumption test are conducted. The model was estimated by using Two Stage Least Square (TSLS). It was found that deficit debt stabilizer in Indonesia, for a long term, gives positive impact on output gaps, the level of prices, interest rate, exchange rates, current account and primary budget deficits, but it the short term has no impact on these macro economics variables because there is time lag in this fiscal policy implementation. Price equation or inflation adjutsment equation is the quickest equation to adjust a new equilibrium, while the equation of interest rate adjust equilibrium slowly. The pattern of response is not different from the situation where the simulation done by adding and subtracting 1 percent of deficit debt stabilizer. When deficit is added, performance of economic variables is better than the deficit debt stabilizer restricted. Key word: fiscal rule, fiscal sustainability, debt stabilizing deficit and VECM